Beautiful article by Daniel Gros taken from http://www.lavoce.info/post-create.g?blogID=4233591188452820442
seems to take shape in these days a new "Washington consensus" according to which the debt capacity of the U.S. is limited. Basically, it is believed that a full use of what remains of funds from the TARP plan launched by the Bush administration, about $ 650 billion, plus a package of measures to be 850 billion to 1 trillion dollars for the biennium 2009-2010 is the limit Today, higher tax policy of intervention in the United States. It is a vision che non può durare a lungo perché dovrebbe essere ormai chiaro che anche l’intero stanziamento del Tarp non è sufficiente per rivitalizzare il settore finanziario.
LA CONTABILITÀ PUBBLICA PRUDENTE DEGLI USA
Una delle ragioni per le quali i deficit Usa sembrano così grandi è che la contabilità pubblica degli Stati Uniti è spesso più predente di quella europea. L’elemento chiave da tenere a mente quando si leggono i rapporti sui deficit fiscali Usa è che l’autorità ufficiale , il Congressional Budget Office (Cbo) conteggia come “spesa” nell’anno fiscale 2009, che va da settembre 2008 settembre 2009, il salvataggio delle agenzie di finanziamento e guarantee mortgage lenders, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for a total of 240 billion dollars. In addition, the CBO estimated that the grant element in the Tarp is about 25 percent, which implies an additional nominal expenditures for fiscal year 2009 of 180 billion dollars. The CBO estimates for 2009 of 420 billion dollars, therefore, devote chapters to the national accounts would not consider "expenses". The two-year package of measures considered by the new administration would amount to about 800-900 billion dollars, or 400 to 450 billion a year. This means that data comparable with those reported in Europe (plus the Obama package, less the cost of bailouts financial markets), it is likely that the U.S. federal deficit is close to the figure provided by the CBO or the 8-9 percent of GDP. (See table)
Source: CBO
THE TARP IS ENOUGH?
Even a brief survey shows that the tax cost, defined as the increase in public debt, a financial crisis as widespread as the current one should be very high.
crisis of this magnitude usually cost several tens of percentage points of GDP. But the total funds available from Tarp month is only $ 700 billion, about 5 percent of GDP. It is too little to address the most serious crisis of the last fifty years.
A Christian who has plagued the entire U.S. mortgage market and spread to most other forms of credit (car, credit cards, personal loans and so on) can not be solved cheaply. The total cost
where necessarily be much greater than 5 percent of GDP, if we consider that the total debt of U.S. households amounted to about 14 thousand billion dollars, ie 100 per cent of GDP. With house prices likely to fall by another 30 percent (a reasonable estimate considering that the price-rent ratio is still on top of a long-term) losses on those loans probably will amount between 20 and 30 per cent. One must bear in mind that U.S. mortgages are in fact (and often law) "is not open to negotiation", which means that the debtor may simply send back the keys to the bank if the home's value falls below the amount that yet to return. With total loans outstanding of about 10 thousand billion (70 per cent of GDP), losses of 20-30 percent would imply losses for the financial system of $ 3 trillion, or about 20 percent of GDP. To this we should add the losses of around 4 trillion of consumer credit to households and other outstanding debts. Con una forte recessione in corso, l’insieme delle dei debiti per le famiglie può essere considerevole. Il totale delle perdite del solo sistema finanziario sui prestiti alle famiglie americane, deve essere perciò superiore ai 3mila miliardi. Se il sistema bancario americano e il sistema finanziario nel suo complesso vuole riprendersi, deve riuscire a ripulirsi da queste perdite. Altrimenti le banche non riprenderanno a erogare nuovamente credito. Qualsiasi operazione che vuole ripulire il settore finanziario deve perciò essere di almeno il 20-25 per cento del Pil. Questa è la dimensione della sfida che deve affrontare il neo presidente Barack Obama.
Foto: da www.whitehouse.org
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